With attention focusing on the summer transfer window, David Amoyal predicts how likely it is that these rumoured moves actually happen.
Danilo to Chelsea: 65 percent
With Juventus set to close a deal with Bayern Munich for Douglas Costa, a player who would take the Serie A champions’ last non-EU player spot this summer, Chelsea now have the best opportunity to sign the Brazilian international. Real Madrid are currently asking €30 million for the right-back — a price that was deemed too steep for Juventus — and it will be interesting to see whether Antonio Conte will look to invest significantly in signing both Danilo and Alex Sandro, who previously played together at Porto.
Federico Bernardeschi to Juventus: 55 percent
In addition to Douglas Costa, Juventus are also pursuing the talented winger and should both arrive in Turin, the odds are Juan Cuadrado would be sold this summer (despite only just becoming a permanent Juve player). While in the past Fiorentina had refused to negotiate with their bitter rivals, now with the club up for sale their stance has changed. In addition, Bernardeschi’s agent told Fiorentina’s sporting director that they would not negotiate an extension to his contract and a move to Juve could be completed for €40m plus bonuses — unless a foreign club swoops in at the last minute.
Juan Cuadrado to Arsenal: 15 percent
Juventus recently redeemed the rights to the winger from Chelsea, but he could be joining another club before the end of the summer. While Arsenal have been linked to Cuadrado, his most likely destination is Milan — the player’s agent, Alessandro Lucci, has already met with the Rossoneri to discuss a deal. As part of the potential agreement to reunite Cuadrado with his former manager Vincenzo Montella, Juventus could also receive Mattia De Sciglio — whose contract expires in 2018.
Alvaro Morata to Chelsea: 55 percent
Antonio Conte had previously pushed to sign Morata before he abruptly resigned at Juventus, and there are numerous reports the player is interested in playing in the Premier League. The key question is whether Chelsea will be willing to meet Real Madrid’s exorbitant price tag. What helps Morata’s case is that Torino don’t appear willing to budge from their demands of the full €100m exit clause for Andrea Belotti.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to Milan: 35 percent
Aubameyang could be leaving the Bundesliga this summer after all. Tianjin Quanjian, the Chinese club managed by Fabio Cannavaro, are willing to make him a very rich offer but he may feel it’s too early in his career to leave Europe. As an alternative, Milan would love to bring him back to the club after he previously played in their youth system. The Rossoneri‘s new sporting director Massimo Mirabelli is very familiar with German clubs, and recently completed deals for Ricardo Rodriguez and Hakan Calhanoglu (from Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen). With the transfer window in China closing on Friday, the clock is ticking, while the main issue for Milan are the financial demands. If completed, Aubameyang would be Milan’s most expensive transfer of the summer by a wide margin for a club that has already committed over €150m.
Naby Keita to Liverpool: 25 percent
After the signing of Mohamed Salah, Liverpool are looking to make at least one more significant addition. The acquisition of Keita may be delayed to next year, however. The midfielder’s exit clause cannot be triggered until next summer and RB Leipzig appear to have no intention of selling him right now — even if a huge offer comes in. The good news for Liverpool fans is that if Keita is in fact sold this summer he’ll almost certainly be heading to Anfield.
Alexis Sanchez to Manchester City: 35 percent
Despite Arsene Wenger’s reluctance to sell the forward to one of their rivals, the key could be the player’s willingness to play again under former Barcelona manager Pep Guardiola. While Bayern Munich have also been linked to Sanchez, they have now closed a loan deal for James Rodriguez — while Inter may decide to join the race should they receive an offer they can’t refuse for Ivan Perisic. In addition, Sanchez has shown interest in a potential return to Serie A. Paris Saint-Germain are also watching on after losing out on James.
Carlos Bacca to Marseille: 40 percent
After signing Andre Silva and adding Fabio Borini on loan, Milan continue to work on signing strikers with Nikola Kalinic as the alternative to Aubameyang. These developments almost certainly spell the end for Bacca’s time with the Rossoneri, and after turning down a move to China last January, he could go to Ligue 1. Marseille manager Rudi Garcia is also interested in acquiring the striker to help replace Bafetimbi Gomis, but a deal will have to be reached to ensure Milan don’t take a loss on a player they invested heavily in. This deal could end up being completed as a loan with a forced option to buy in order to spread out the payments.
Lucas Biglia to Milan: 70 percent
After signing Frank Kessie, Milan are looking to add a veteran to lead their midfield. Lazio are open to selling their captain — whose contract expires in 2018 — for around €20m. Milan’s latest offer wasn’t that far off and they could include Gianluca Lapadula as a makeweight to complete the deal. Milan are looking to close the deal by Thursday so that Biglia can leave for their summer tour.
Olivier Giroud to Everton: 25 percent
After signing Wayne Rooney and Sandro Ramirez could the Toffees invest significantly on another striker? With Alexandre Lacazette having signed for Arsenal, Giroud is likely expendable and eager to join a team where he can play regularly in a World Cup season. While Everton will likely be able to offer the highest wages, Giroud could also decide to return to France instead.
David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio’s website.